NAVSTRAT-SSBI

Methodology

Purpose

The NAVSTRAT Statecraft Security Balance Index, referred to as the NAVSTRAT-SSBI, assesses the extent to which a country's economic position supports its security position. It combines measures of economic capacity, trade exposure to rival states, military capability, operational experience and defence industrial capacity into a single score for each country.

Military expenditure on its own does not show whether a country can sustain its forces, keep its industry supplied under pressure or produce its own equipment. The index places military capability alongside the economic and industrial conditions that support it and alongside the dependencies that a rival state could use against it.

What is measured

The index is organised into five fronts.

Economic Base. Manufacturing output, expenditure on research and development, high technology exports, the size of the economy and inward foreign direct investment.

Shock Resilience. A country's trade relationship with the states it regards as rivals. This includes the trade balance with those states, the share of imports sourced from them, the share of exports sold to them and the share of critical industrial inputs and strategic technologies they supply. Strategic technologies include semiconductors, batteries and rare earth compounds. Foreign exchange reserves and dependence on imported fuel are also included.

Military Strength. Military expenditure, expenditure per member of the armed forces, expenditure relative to rival states, armed forces personnel, nuclear forces and the change in real military expenditure.

Combat Validation. The frequency and intensity with which a country's armed forces have taken part in armed conflict over the past ten years and the extent to which that operational experience is matched by domestic defence production. Countries that have not been involved in armed conflict receive no score on this front and are not otherwise penalised.

Defence Industry. The arms revenue of a country's leading defence companies, its arms exports, the balance between arms exports and imports and the trend in arms exports.

Uses

The index is intended for analysts, investors, defence and industrial companies and policy researchers. It provides a consistent basis for comparing countries, identifies where a country's security position rests on economic dependence on a rival, tracks changes in a country's position over time and supports country and supply chain risk assessment.

Coverage

The index covers 106 countries in North America, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, South Asia, Central Asia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific. The headline table presents the twenty largest military spenders. All scores are calculated relative to the full set of 106 countries. Countries for which no independent estimate of military expenditure is available are not included.

Method

Each indicator is normalised to a common scale across the 106 countries, with extreme values limited to reduce their influence. Indicators are aggregated into a score for each front, and the fronts are aggregated into an overall score from 0 to 100.

The aggregation gives additional weight to a country's weakest front, excluding Combat Validation, so that strength in one area does not offset weakness in another. Weights are determined by NAVSTRAT and reviewed annually. They are not published.

Reference states

Each country is assessed against a defined set of reference states. Where a country's national security strategy identifies a state threat, where there has been armed conflict or an active territorial dispute since 2023, or where there is a sustained strategic rivalry marked by trade restrictions or competing military presence, the states concerned form its rival set. Examples include China and Pakistan for India, Russia for most members of NATO, and Iran and Türkiye for Israel. Where no state threat applies, the neighbouring states with the largest military expenditure are used as a benchmark and the trade measures are not applied. Reference sets and the basis for each are recorded and reviewed quarterly.

Data and estimation

Figures are taken from the most recent release available for each country. Where a country does not report its trade, the records of its trading partners are used. Where an indicator is unavailable, it is estimated from comparable countries selected by region and income level, using a method validated against countries with reported data. Countries with estimated values are identified in the index tables and estimates are replaced when reported figures become available.

Updates

The index is published weekly, on Fridays. The underlying data are refreshed annually as the source datasets are updated. Weekly editions reflect verified developments, including trade agreements, export controls, sanctions, changes in trade with rival states, major defence contracts, defence production programmes, budget revisions and combat operations.

Each development requires confirmation from at least two independent sources, at least one of them official. Developments in the Middle East are assessed against Israeli, Gulf and other regional reporting. Adjustments for individual developments diminish over subsequent weeks unless they are reflected in updated data.

Sources

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Military Expenditure Database

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Arms Industry Database

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Arms Transfers Database

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Yearbook 2026, World Nuclear Forces

Uppsala Conflict Data Program and Peace Research Institute Oslo, Armed Conflict Dataset

United Nations Comtrade database

World Bank, World Development Indicators

Limits

Official military expenditure figures may not capture all defence related spending, including support to non-state forces. Conflict data include participation in coalition and peacekeeping operations, which are weighted below direct involvement. Trade measures cover goods only. Reference sets involve analytical judgement and are documented for transparency.

Citation

Scores should be cited with the edition from which they are taken. For a weekly edition, use the date of that edition, for example NAVSTRAT-SSBI, weekly edition of 16 October 2026, navstrat.net. For an annual index, use the year, for example NAVSTRAT-SSBI 2025, navstrat.net. This document may be cited as NAVSTRAT-SSBI Methodology, October 2026.